{"id":15,"date":"2026-03-31T14:55:32","date_gmt":"2026-03-31T14:55:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/roknraqmi.com\/en\/?p=15"},"modified":"2026-03-31T14:55:35","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T14:55:35","slug":"replacing-programmers-with-artificial-intelligence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/roknraqmi.com\/en\/ai\/replacing-programmers-with-artificial-intelligence\/","title":{"rendered":"Will AI replace programmers within 5 years?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In early 2026, Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, indicated in media appearances and public statements that AI models could soon perform a large share of the tasks performed by software engineers today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He also explained that many engineers within the company have begun to rely on models to write the initial code, while they focus on review, guidance, and improvement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rank-math-toc-block\" id=\"rank-math-toc\"><h3>Table of Contents<\/h3><nav><ul><li><a href=\"#the-numbers-tell-the-truth\">The numbers tell the truth<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#technical-driving-sounds-a-warning-bell-or-an-exaggeration\">Technical driving sounds: a warning bell or an exaggeration?<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#what-do-major-research-and-study-centers-say\">What do major research and study centers say?<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#what-is-ai-incapable-of-doing-so-far\">What is AI incapable of doing so far?<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#impact-on-beginners-first\">Impact on beginners first<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#between-pessimism-and-optimism-who-wins-with-arguments\">Between pessimism and optimism: Who wins with arguments?<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#what-does-this-mean-in-practical-terms-for-programmers\">What does this mean in practical terms for programmers?<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#in-conclusion-transformation-not-disappearance\">In conclusion: Transformation not disappearance<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-numbers-tell-the-truth\">The numbers tell the truth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Before delving into the analysis, let&#8217;s look at some striking figures that paint a true picture of what is happening today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In 2025, research from GitHub and Microsoft showed that tools like GitHub Copilot are widely used to write bits of code in software projects, especially repetitive functions or simple modules, with a notable impact on popular programming languages \u200b\u200bsuch as JavaScript and Python, where the acceptance rate of suggestions from Copilot in some experiments reaches about 30\u201346%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Experimental studies indicate that the use of AI tools can increase developers&#8217; productivity by between <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w31161\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w31161\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">20% and 55%<\/a><\/strong> for specific tasks, such as writing repetitive code or writing software tests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Experiments conducted by GitHub have shown that developers who use Copilot complete tasks significantly faster than non-users.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the economic front, the AI code generation market has grown from $4.91 billion in 2024 to an estimated $30.1 billion by 2032, at a compound annual growth rate of nearly 27%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"technical-driving-sounds-a-warning-bell-or-an-exaggeration\">Technical driving sounds: a warning bell or an exaggeration?<\/h2>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/roknraqmi.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/AI-vs-Programmers-Evolution-or-Elimination-1024x576.webp\" alt=\"AI vs Programmers Evolution or Elimination\" class=\"wp-image-17\" srcset=\"https:\/\/roknraqmi.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/AI-vs-Programmers-Evolution-or-Elimination-1024x576.webp 1024w, https:\/\/roknraqmi.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/AI-vs-Programmers-Evolution-or-Elimination-300x169.webp 300w, https:\/\/roknraqmi.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/AI-vs-Programmers-Evolution-or-Elimination-768x432.webp 768w, https:\/\/roknraqmi.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/AI-vs-Programmers-Evolution-or-Elimination-150x84.webp 150w, https:\/\/roknraqmi.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/AI-vs-Programmers-Evolution-or-Elimination-450x253.webp 450w, https:\/\/roknraqmi.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/AI-vs-Programmers-Evolution-or-Elimination-1200x675.webp 1200w, https:\/\/roknraqmi.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/AI-vs-Programmers-Evolution-or-Elimination.webp 1280w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">AI vs Programmers: Evolution or Elimination<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It&#8217;s not just Amodei. Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, believes that artificial intelligence will gradually replace software jobs at an accelerating rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mark Zuckerberg announced that AI agents will soon replace middle-level engineers at Meta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff indicated that his company was seriously considering stopping hiring new engineers in 2025, citing \u201cexceptional productivity gains\u201d achieved thanks to AI agents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In fact, Amodei went even further in an article he published in early 2026, warning that AI could displace half of the entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, more cautious voices are adding to the complexity of the situation. Andrej Karpathy, a prominent AI researcher, coined the term \u201cVibe Coding\u201d in early 2025 to describe a new programming style where developers describe what they want in human language, and AI handles the execution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But he later confirmed, on the first anniversary of the term, that this approach has evolved towards what he called \u201cagent engineering,\u201d where the developer does not write the code directly most of the time, but coordinates AI agents and acts as a supervisor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"what-do-major-research-and-study-centers-say\">What do major research and study centers say?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Beyond the statements of executives, there is a more accurate reading from global research centers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Goldman Sachs warns that artificial intelligence could affect up to <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldmansachs.com\/insights\/articles\/generative-ai-could-raise-global-gdp-by-7-percent.html\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.goldmansachs.com\/insights\/articles\/generative-ai-could-raise-global-gdp-by-7-percent.html\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">300 million jobs worldwide<\/a><\/strong> in the near future, and lists programmers among the groups most vulnerable to automation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, the same report indicates that the actual impact on overall labor market indicators is still almost non-existent so far, and that major shifts \u201cneed at least another two years before they become clearly apparent.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">McKinsey believes that generative artificial intelligence will change the nature of work in many areas, including software development, as it will automate many repetitive and traditional tasks, while the need for human input will remain in strategic planning, design, supervision, decision-making, and ensuring the quality of solutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mckinsey.com\/mgi\/our-research\/generative-ai-and-the-future-of-work-in-america\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.mckinsey.com\/mgi\/our-research\/generative-ai-and-the-future-of-work-in-america\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">McKinsey research<\/a><\/strong> indicates that AI is more likely to complement human tasks and reshape professional roles rather than replace them entirely, and that the transformation requires significant investment in skills and training for work teams.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It predicts that AI will create 9 million new jobs in the United States alone by 2030, while emphasizing the need for skills retraining.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In contrast, Forrester\u2019s 2025 report revealed that developers spend only 24% of their time actually writing code, with the remainder distributed across design, testing, debugging, and stakeholder meetings. This fact alone significantly complicates any simplistic estimate of programmer replacement potential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Some future analyses issued by American research centers suggest that advanced automation may significantly affect software development within the next two decades, but no official research body has yet predicted a complete replacement of software developers within a short timeframe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"what-is-ai-incapable-of-doing-so-far\">What is AI incapable of doing so far?<\/h2>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/roknraqmi.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/What-AI-Still-Cant-Do-in-Programming-1024x576.webp\" alt=\"What AI Still Can\u2019t Do in Programming\" class=\"wp-image-18\" srcset=\"https:\/\/roknraqmi.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/What-AI-Still-Cant-Do-in-Programming-1024x576.webp 1024w, https:\/\/roknraqmi.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/What-AI-Still-Cant-Do-in-Programming-300x169.webp 300w, https:\/\/roknraqmi.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/What-AI-Still-Cant-Do-in-Programming-768x432.webp 768w, https:\/\/roknraqmi.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/What-AI-Still-Cant-Do-in-Programming-150x84.webp 150w, https:\/\/roknraqmi.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/What-AI-Still-Cant-Do-in-Programming-450x253.webp 450w, https:\/\/roknraqmi.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/What-AI-Still-Cant-Do-in-Programming-1200x675.webp 1200w, https:\/\/roknraqmi.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/What-AI-Still-Cant-Do-in-Programming.webp 1280w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">What AI Still Can\u2019t Do in Programming<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite all the hype, there are hard technical realities that temper excessive optimism. A 2025 Stack Overflow survey showed that 76% of developers do not plan to use AI for deployment and monitoring tasks, and 69% refuse to employ it in project planning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The reason is clear:<\/strong> AI writes code, but fails to grasp the broader context.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A good engineering decision is not just about whether the code works, but also whether it aligns with long-term business objectives, is maintainable, safe, and scalable. These are judgments that remain largely within human control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Academic studies have shown that AI-generated code may, in some cases, contain security flaws or imperfect programming patterns, requiring careful human review.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Some research indicates that vulnerabilities are more likely to appear compared to handwritten code if it is not carefully reviewed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Google\u2019s DORA 2024 report also revealed that the increased reliance on AI improves the speed of authentication, but results in a 7.2% decrease in the stability of delivery processes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"impact-on-beginners-first\">Impact on beginners first<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If there is a near-universal consensus in the industry, it concerns novice programmers more than anyone else.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jobs that used to be an entry point for new graduates, such as writing routine code, simple modules, and fixing recurring errors, are precisely the tasks that are most amenable to automation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Labor market reports in the United States and Europe have noted a significant slowdown in the hiring of junior developers during 2023 and 2024, especially in major technology companies, coinciding with a wave of layoffs and widespread restructuring in the sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This practically means that the traditional career progression ladder from beginner to intermediate to senior programmer is now under threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The CEO of Goldman Sachs confirmed this with figures:<\/strong> unemployment among 20-30-year-olds working in technology fields has risen by nearly 3% since the beginning of 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"between-pessimism-and-optimism-who-wins-with-arguments\">Between pessimism and optimism: Who wins with arguments?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bill Gates, in a lengthy interview with Sam Altman, stated unequivocally that AI will fundamentally change every industry, but he identified three jobs that will remain the same, with programming being the first. He added that developers will always be needed to correct and improve AI models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the same context, Andrew Ng, one of the leading pioneers of artificial intelligence, confirms that learning programming has never been easier than it is now, but it has also never been more important in history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yann LeCun, chief AI scientist at Meta, believes that we are still very far from an AI that matches human capabilities in general.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Perhaps the most frequently quoted phrase in tech circles today, usually attributed to Jeff Atwood, one of the founders of Stack Overflow, is:<\/strong> \u201cAI will not replace developers, but the developer who uses AI will replace the developer who does not.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"what-does-this-mean-in-practical-terms-for-programmers\">What does this mean in practical terms for programmers?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In light of all the above, the answer is not \u201cyes\u201d or \u201cno,\u201d but rather \u201chow, where, and when.\u201d Programming jobs will not disappear, but they will be radically transformed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A programmer who refuses to adapt will find himself facing increasing pressure, while a programmer who makes good use of these tools will double his productivity and rise in status.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The transformations expected over the next 5 years are moving in three clear directions:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Programming will move from writing code line by line to directing AI agents and supervising their outputs.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>The value of advanced technical skills, architectural design of systems, understanding business requirements, and ensuring quality and safety is increasing.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>The ability to communicate with intelligent systems, to guide them precisely, to critically evaluate their outputs, and to correct their paths, will become an essential, not optional, skill.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts significant growth in software developer jobs during the current decade, at approximately <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/ooh\/computer-and-information-technology\/software-developers.htm\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/ooh\/computer-and-information-technology\/software-developers.htm\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">17% to 22%<\/a><\/strong> between 2023 and 2033, a rate faster than the overall average for jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"in-conclusion-transformation-not-disappearance\">In conclusion: Transformation not disappearance<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The real question is not \u201cWill AI replace programmers?\u201d but \u201cWhat kind of programmers will still be valuable in a world where machines write most of the code?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The answer that is forming before us today is:<\/strong> The programmer who thinks more than he writes, who understands what the user wants before he writes a single line, and who can evaluate and improve the code generated by the machine, this programmer will not be threatened, but will be more valuable than ever.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">History teaches us that every major technological wave has not eliminated professions, but rather redefined them. Calculators did not eliminate accountants, nor did digital cameras eliminate photographers. But they changed what it means to be an accountant or a photographer. Artificial intelligence will be no exception.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details has-small-font-size is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary><strong>Sources and references:<\/strong><\/summary>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/survey.stackoverflow.co\/2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/survey.stackoverflow.co\/2024\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Stack Overflow Developer Survey 2024<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldmansachs.com\/insights\/articles\/generative-ai-could-raise-global-gdp-by-7-percent.html\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.goldmansachs.com\/insights\/articles\/generative-ai-could-raise-global-gdp-by-7-percent.html\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Generative AI could boost global output by 7%<\/a> \u2013 Goldman Sachs<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/ooh\/computer-and-information-technology\/software-developers.htm\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/ooh\/computer-and-information-technology\/software-developers.htm\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Software Developer Job Outlook 2023\u20132033<\/a> \u2013 BLS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>GitClear 2024 Report \u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gitclear.com\/coding_on_copilot_data_shows_ais_downward_pressure_on_code_quality\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.gitclear.com\/coding_on_copilot_data_shows_ais_downward_pressure_on_code_quality\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Copilot&#8217;s Impact on Code Quality<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/dora.dev\/research\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/dora.dev\/research\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">DevOps (DORA) Report<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/details>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In early 2026, Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, indicated in media appearances and public statements that AI models could soon perform a large share of the tasks performed by software engineers today. He also explained that many engineers within the company have begun to rely on models to write the initial code, while they focus<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":16,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[5,3,7,8,6,4],"class_list":["post-15","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ai","tag-ai","tag-editors-choice","tag-information-technology-market","tag-information-technology-sector","tag-programmers","tag-programming"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/roknraqmi.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/roknraqmi.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/roknraqmi.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/roknraqmi.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/roknraqmi.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/roknraqmi.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19,"href":"https:\/\/roknraqmi.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15\/revisions\/19"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/roknraqmi.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/roknraqmi.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/roknraqmi.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/roknraqmi.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}